Risk remains skewed to the downside in the coming months

Risk remains skewed to the downside in the coming months

While there are cross-currents at work, the path of least resistance for the market is likely still lower. Disinflation is typically a tailwind for stocks, but recession risk remains highly elevated. As noted in previous reports, stocks historically bottom in a recession rather than before one. Despite meaningful disinflation in recent months, Powell’s Fed remains … Read more

ECB slows rate hikes but pledges more to keep up inflation fight

ECB slows rate hikes but pledges more to keep up inflation fight

ECB raises rates by 50 bps, signals similar hikes QT to start in March Euro zone recession looms Inflation risks skewed to upside FRANKFURT, Dec 15 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank eased the pace of its interest rate hikes on Thursday but stressed significant tightening remained ahead and laid out plans to drain cash … Read more

Options traders brace for big swings as U.S. CPI data, Fed meeting loom

Options traders brace for big swings as U.S. CPI data, Fed meeting loom

NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Options traders are bracing for a week of swings in U.S. stocks ahead of key inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of 2022 and the final monthly options expiration of the year. Inflation data and the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy could give traders more clarity on … Read more

U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll

U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll

BENGALURU, Dec 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is heading into a short and shallow recession over the coming year, according to economists polled by Reuters who unanimously expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to go for a smaller 50 basis point interest rate hike on Dec. 14. The Fed has another half-point at least to … Read more

New York Fed taps insurance exec for new second in command

New York Fed taps insurance exec for new second in command

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) – The New York Federal Reserve has tapped an insurance industry executive as second in command to President John Williams, a role in which there has been recent turnover at the most important of the Fed system’s 12 regional banks. Sushmita Shukla, currently a senior vice president and the chief … Read more

Recession fears overblown? Bank of America CEO makes a prediction – Fox Business

Recession fears overblown? Bank of America CEO makes a prediction – Fox Business

Recession fears overblown? Bank of America CEO makes a prediction  Fox Business Jamie Dimon says inflation eroding consumer wealth may cause recession next year  CNBC U.S banks warn of recession risk, inflation hurting consumers, shares hit  Yahoo Finance S&P 500 could plunge 20% in coming months as recession hits, BofA warns  Fox Business View Full Coverage on Google News

BIS warns of $80 trillion of hidden FX swap debt

BIS warns of $80 trillion of hidden FX swap debt

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) – The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that pension funds and other ‘non-bank’ financial firms now have more than $80 trillion of hidden, off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. Dubbed the central bank to the world’s central banks, the BIS raised the concerns in its … Read more

November jobs report is most important data for inflation this year- and not in a good way

November jobs report is most important data for inflation this year- and not in a good way

The November U.S. jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 261,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an addition of 200,000 jobs. Wages jumped 0.6% in November, double the expected pace. Below are some initial reactions from economists and … Read more

Fed’s Bostic says he is ready to ‘move away’ from large rate increases

Fed’s Bostic says he is ready to ‘move away’ from large rate increases

WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) – Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Saturday he is ready to “move away” from three-quarter-point rate hikes at the Fed’s December meeting and feels the Fed’s target policy rate need rise no more than another percentage point to tackle inflation. “If the economy proceeds as I expect, I believe … Read more

Banking giants and New York Fed start 12-week digital dollar pilot

Banking giants and New York Fed start 12-week digital dollar pilot

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) – Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the participants announced on Tuesday. Citigroup Inc , HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L), Mastercard Inc (MA.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside … Read more