Over the next few weeks, the U.S. should expect an increase in cases from the BA.2 variant, Drs. Anthony Fauci to ABC News, but it may not lead to such a serious increase in hospitalizations or deaths.
“I would not be surprised if in the next few weeks we see something of either a flattening of our reduction or maybe even an increase,” Fauci told ABC News’ Brad Mielke on the podcast “Start Here.”
His prediction is based on conversations with colleagues in the UK, who are currently seeing a “blip” in cases, Fauci said. The course of the pandemic in the United States has often followed the United Kingdom by about three weeks.
But he added: “Their use of intensive care does not increase, which means they do not see an increase in serious illness.”
The BA.2 variant, a more transmissible strain of omicron, now represents about 23% of all cases in the United States, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
And although Fauci predicted that the BA.2 variant would eventually overtake the omicron as the most dominant variant, it is not yet clear how big a problem it will be.
“Whether it will lead to another increase, a mini increase or maybe even a moderate increase is very unclear because there are a lot of other things going on right now,” Fauci said.
MORE: COVID cases are expected to increase in the coming weeks due to the new BA.2 variant
Like the United Kingdom, large parts of the United States have recently relaxed their remedial efforts as mask mandates and requirements for evidence of vaccination. At the same time, people who were vaccinated more than six months ago and still have not received a booster shot, which is about half of vaccinated Americans according to the CDC, are constantly declining immunity.
It is also not yet clear how long immunity from previous infection will last, Fauci said.
Together, that’s why Fauci and other experts, including CDC director Rochelle Walensky, have increasingly predicted that older people will soon need an extra booster shot. The Food and Drug Administration began reviewing data from Pfizer on safety and efficacy this week, and its advisory panel will discuss whether and when the extra booster shot is needed in the coming weeks.
At the same time, Fauci urged Americans who have not yet received their first booster, which would be their third shot in a Pfizer or Moderna series, to do so.
A resurgence of cases could also mean Americans being asked to wear masks again, which Fauci predicted would be an uphill battle.
“From what I know about human nature, which I think is pretty much, people are kind of done with COVID,” Fauci said.
Still, he defended the CDC’s decision to loosen its mask recommendations earlier this month by shifting to a strategy that focused more on serious outcomes, such as hospitalizations and deaths, rather than on the daily spread of cases.
MORE: US COVID-19 vaccine booster drive brakes, with 85 million eligible Americans still without their extra shots
“You can go ahead and keep pointing toes towards normality, which is what we do, but at the same time be aware that you may have to turn around,” Fauci said.
And if the United States continues to return to normal times, Fauci himself has a personal choice to consider. At 81, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is “probably” thinking of retiring.
“I have said I would stay in what I do until we get out of the pandemic phase and I think we can be there already if we can stay in this,” Fauci said, referring to the declining cases and hospitalizations in the United States
“I can not stay at this job forever. Unless my staff one day finds me lowered down over my desk. I would rather not do that,” he said, laughing.
Although he does not currently have retirement plans, the recent hiring of Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, to be the coronavirus coordinator in the White House, remedy some of his duties to respond to the pandemic and give him a window.
But Fauci, who has dedicated his career to public health, primarily studying HIV and AIDS and working under seven U.S. presidents, said he has no particular hobbies waiting for him when he retires.
“Unfortunately, I’m a bit of a one-dimensional doctor, scientist, public health person. When I decide I want to step down when it is, I have to figure out what it is I need to do,” he said. he said.
“I would love to spend more time with my wife and family. That would be really good.”
Fauci says COVID-19 cases are likely to increase soon, though not necessarily hospitalizations originally appeared on abcnews.go.com