Victoria’s Covid Outbreak: Is the variant spreading faster in Melbourne? | Melbourne

Medical experts have urged caution regarding these claims of Covid-1 var variant Victoria Acting premiere James Merlino said the virus was spreading “remarkably faster” than acting premiere “James Merlino”.

“Normal broadcasts last about five to six days [but] In some of these cases, it’s airing within a day, “Merlino said Thursday when he announced the state lockdown would begin Friday.” The number of cases has doubled in two hours. Unless there is tough action, it will be increasingly uncontrollable. “

The specific type involved in the outbreak is the B1617.1 variant, first identified in India. It is not the most contagious version in India, which is B1617.2. Chief Health Officer, Prof. Brett Sutton said it was “at least” contagious but similar to the B117 type prevalent in the UK.

But despite Marlino’s concerns, there was little to no difference between the transition and the broadcast, and Greg Dorrey, a professor at the Kirby Institute, said there was no clear evidence of concern about Victoria’s recent outbreak, short incubation period or serial interruptions.

In epidemiology, the intermittent period is the time from the onset of the disease to the onset of the disease in infected people, while the incubation period is the time from the onset of symptoms in an individual to the onset of symptoms.

Dore said some versions of anxiety with high viral levels may affect the intermittent interval, but do not change from an average of five days to as little as one day.

“More data could show a slightly shorter serial interval,” Dorey said. “But there is a growing concern that different forms of anxiety are associated with higher viral levels,” he said.

The higher the viral level, the more infected people become, increasing the likelihood of spreading.

“[Among] Other factors that artificially ‘shorten’ the serial interval are rapid contact traces. Yes, it is possible that close contacts are swabbed before symptoms develop, which is what we see when there is a high level of testing of the contacts, ”said Dorey. “And, cases with short intervals were first detected in an outbreak.”

Similar concerns were expressed by other prime ministers about the short incubation period during the outbreak in the states involved in other variants, including the early stages of the NSW Crossroads Hotel outbreak. And in South Australia, where cases were linked to pizza bars.

In July, NSW’s chief health officer, Dr. Kerry Chant said of the Crossroads Hotel tragedy: “Interestingly, we also saw some acquisitions that were very short-lived. So people have developed symptoms in a period of more than 1 day. “

In November, South Australian Prime Minister Steven Marshall said one of the reasons for the state’s sudden and severe six-day lockout was “the special difficulty of the disease, which shows no symptoms in infected people.” .

“The other thing we know is that the incubation period for this particular strain is very short, and it can be as short as 24 hours.”

“It’s not true,” said Peter Collignon, a professor of infectious diseases at the Australian National University.

“We need to be careful about the way we describe it. It’s hard to say that there are variants behaving differently, but it shouldn’t be classical. There’s enough fear and devastation,” Collignon said.

What hasn’t changed, Collignon said, is that the virus and all variants spread in the same way. “And that means public health infrastructure still holds, including hygiene and social distance,” he said. “Also, the importance of vaccination.”

He agreed with Dore that the virus seems to be spreading fast. Contact tracers are working fast, finding people, testing them and quarantining them, sometimes even before obvious symptoms appear.

“If you look at India and England where this type is still widespread, I don’t know how much has changed in the incubation period of days, where there are always outflows and super-spreaders,” he said.

“With the UK version, the mid-incubation period was similar although people infected were slightly longer, on average four days to five days. Will it be the same in terms of variants in Victoria? Well, there is not enough data to say yet.”

However, the B1171.1.1 version is more contagious than any other, and wood was needed to control it, said Raghmit Istivan, an associate professor of microbiology at RMIT University.

“It is now clear that we are dealing with a highly contagious type of virus, which must be treated before it is too late,” he said.

“I think there should have been more measures in early May. The infected vault was first discovered at a quarantine hotel in South Australia.

“As we move into winter, older recipients are reluctant to get the estrogen vaccine, and caregivers of many ages have not yet received the first covid 1 shot, and with a rapidly growing number. The last two days have seen positive developments, I hope it’s not too late. ”

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