Bad luck or bad management: Why are there so many cowardly outbreaks in Victoria? | Health

Victoria begins its seven-day circuit breaker lockdown – the fourth since the coronavirus epidemic began.

Other states have also imposed snip lockdowns or bans as a result of cowardly incidents in the community, The newest New South Wales, After a mystery case. But, with exceptions Sydney’s North Beach Cluster, Most of the leaks from the hotel quarantine have not resulted in a catastrophic outbreak.

So has Victoria just been ominous, or are there other factors that affect the state in which Kovid-1 is transmitted?

Is the community mired in bad luck?

James McKay, University Professor of Mathematical Biology MelbourneOpportunity is a major factor, as there is a great deal of variation in the number of people who spread the virus from one person to another.

In the early stages of an outbreak, there is a different nature of the spread known as clustered transmission of the virus, which is highly unpredictable.

An estimated 0% of infected people cannot transmit the virus to anyone else, and research has shown that around 20% of people – The so-called “super-spreaders” – are responsible for the huge viral transmission.

The mode of transmission was the same for SARS, and different from other viruses that cause the flu, which is more stable.

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“In terms of control, it works in our favor,” says MacKay. When hotel quarantine infection leaks under control, the most likely outcome is that Kovid 1 nobody spreads to anyone or only one person, he says. “Most people get it, they go through it [infection control] System, but they don’t give it to anyone and we avoid disaster.

“We saw that Western Australia And we’ve seen it many other times where the infected person is in the community. ”

Hassan VallyVictoria, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Latrobe University, agrees with the ominous result of a high virus outbreak after quarantining in South Australia.

“Any other state could face a similar situation,” Valley says. “We’re careful not to blame Victoria for that.”

Does covid spread quickly in cold weather?

Covid-1 transmission appears Fast in the winter, Says James Traver, an associate professor at Monash University.

Research suggests The virus does not stay on hot surfaces for long, And coronavirus cases in the Northern Hemisphere have coincided with the winter months.

“It could be organic or it could be behavioral,” says Trower. “It could be that people are spending a lot of time inside and we know more that aerosol transmission is important.

“As in South Australia’s Hotel Quarantine, it can be transmitted to people by air, which is 1. meters away from each other.”

Melbourne’s coldest climate, Australia’s most populous southern city, is more likely to have an outbreak of Kovid 19 than cities in other states, but Mack says. “It simply came to our notice then. Have not seen [with Covid-19] Still

Are there other factors that make Victoria susceptible?

Dr. of Newcastle University. Beverly Petersen suggests that Melbourne’s higher levels among residents may be a contributing factor compared to other cities – although it will be difficult to prove.

“When you look at an outbreak, there are a lot of risks within the family group and the workplace,” she says.

Currently based on social distance behavior Statistical potential for Covid-1 transmission Victoria is actually the lowest of all the other states and territories.

Although Victoria’s Covid 1 cases are centered in Melbourne, the city’s high population density does not appear to have had any effect on the disaster risk, Mack says.

When the virus infects certain parts of the population for which social distance is more difficult – such as in lower socioeconomic areas where household size is smaller – the spread is faster.

“All cities in Australia have a spectrum of socioeconomic areas,” says MacKay. “Nothing special about Melbourne.”

Are contact errors tracing factors?

Contract tracing errors – such as the incorrect identification of the Woolworth location in North Melbourne – have been criticized in recent days.

Victoria’s Chief Health Officer, Prof. Brett Sutton, has advocated for the state’s Contact Tracy program, which has identified more than 10,000 primary and secondary contacts and more than 1,150. Potential risk sites. “Now is not the time to try to find fictional victims,” ​​he tweeted on Thursday.

“We were much better able to deal with it in Victoria than we were 12 months ago,” says Bheli.

Significantly, the virus’s behavior has changed over the past year, says Bruce Thompson, a professor at Swinburne University of Technology. There are more than 100 variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus in circulation.

The recent Victorian cluster – Covid – 1 rain, responsible for B.1.617.1, first identified in India – has a much faster transmission rate than other variants.

Victoria The acting prime minister, James Merlino, mentioned Thursday Periodic interval – Periodic covid 1 cases The time between events – from normal to six days is slightly less than one day.

Nowhere in the world is such a fast broadcast recorded, says Patterson.

“That changes everything,” she says. “In Australia, where we have a lot of cases, it’s like a real-world experiment … you can track exposure.”

The Victorian lockdown is a reminder that complacency among largely unaffected populations can lead to famine, Valley says.

“The most effective way to deal with it [in future] “Vaccination is,” says Thompson.

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