Supply vs. Demand: Which state is receiving their COVID-1V vaccine tipping points?

We Recently estimated That the US was close to its “COVID-19 vaccine tipping point” – that is, at this point vaccine supply began to boost demand. We also noted that the national average could mask significant differences for the state. So we tried to understand where the states fall with this spectrum; Such a difference is important to better understand how to try to increase vaccine coverage across the country.

To do so, we looked at the share of adults with at least one vaccine dose by state, administered daily rates of the first dose (using a rol-day rolling average), and how this rate changed last week (see Methods). . We were particularly keen to identify those states that may still have relatively low vaccine coverage (e.g., less than 0% of adults 1 year of age or older) as well as evidence of a decline in first dose use, as these states are the most likely to receive There can be big challenges. Adequate vaccine coverage in the United States

By April 2, between states0 and DC, we find:

The share of adults receiving at least one vaccine dose was 55% overall, and went from a remarkably low 1% (Alabama) to a high of 74 74% (New Hampshire) nationwide. In addition, there is evidence of a decline in the speed of the new Aptech in many states. At the national level, the daily rate of first dose administration is 100,000 per 40,000, from 1,1006 per 10,000 (Mississippi) to 88 88 (Rhode Island). Most states (out of 1) are vaccinating below the national rate. , Reflecting the fact that vaccination rates are generally higher in larger states (California, for example). In addition, the rate of administration per 100,000 doses over the past week has declined overall in the U.S. (-1 %%) and for almost all states (45 of 1) (see Table 1).

At the high end of the vaccine coverage spectrum, more than 0% of the adult population has received at least one dose in 12 states. These states are mainly in the Northeast (8 of 12). Seven have at least 65% vaccination coverage and all but one (New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania) are administering the first dose above the US rate. Eight of the 12 states have seen a drop in the first dose administration rate in the past week, suggesting that Even if these states reach relatively high vaccination coverage levels and administration rates, demand can reach saturation.

At the lower end of the vaccine coverage spectrum, less than 0% of the adult population has received at least one dose in 1 13 states, including OTA less than 45%.. Nine of these states are in the south, and in all, the daily rate of vaccination per 100,000 is lower than the national rate. In addition, the rate of the first dose administered is declining. This suggests that while these states may have come close or reached their tipping points, they have done so at relatively low levels of vaccine coverage.

The rest of the states between these two extremes are mainly in the Midwest and to some extent South and West.. In about half of these states, adults between 55% and 0% have received the dose at least once. All but one experienced declines in the rate of the first dose administered in the last week.

The low state combined with low overall vaccine coverage as well as the large performance of slow and declining vaccine uptake is of great concern.. There are 1 states that have less than 500% coverage of at least one dose, all of which are vaccinating their adult population below the national rate. Twelve of these states also saw a decline in adult immunization rates last week. It includes states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi) that have been vaccinated with less than 2% or less vaccinations, the lowest in the nation, with each receiving the vaccine at half the rate overall. These are the states that have the greatest distance from reaching adequate vaccine coverage levels and may be at risk for future outbreaks if levels are not raised significantly.


As in the United States as a whole, most states appear at or near their COVID-1 vaccine tipping point – at which point their supply demand is higher. While this may not be a major concern for states that have vaccinated a large proportion (> 0%) of their adult population with at least one dose, about one in four states has not yet reached 0%, which is below the coverage level. It is important to reduce the risk of further outbreaks. In addition, in these states, the rate of vaccination is lower than the national rate. The fact that most of these states are also seeing a decline in first-dose administration rates indicates that they will be important targets for a focused effort to increase vaccine demand.

Vaccine data were obtained Johns Hopkins University Centers for Civic Influence, Which collects state-level vaccine data from both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state COVID-1B dashboards, and by the Pennsylvania Department of Health (Pennsylvania data does not include the city of Philadelphia). Obtained from adult population data (1 year years and older) 201 State by State Population Characteristics From the US Census Bureau. We calculated the do-day rolling average administered first dose and the share of the adult population that received at least one dose per state and US overall (excluding administered territories and doses through the federal facility for the overall US census). We used to calculate the rate at which these states and the United States administered the first dose per 100,000 adults. Weekly changes in administered first dose rates were calculated using a percentage change from the current rate (April 2, 2021) to the day before the change. Finally, we classified the states using regions 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Areas and Divisions Classification

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